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Completing the Forecast Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts PDF eBook

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Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts
Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts. Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate. Division on Earth and Life Studies
NAS Press | 2006 | ISBN: 0309102553 0309662613 9780309102551 | 125 pages | PDF | 7 MB

This issue provides guidance on understanding and characterizing user needs for uncertainty information, suggesting improvements in current methods used to estimate and validate uncertainty products and recommending improvements in methods used to communicate uncertainty information.

Contents
SUMMARY
Overarching Findings and Recommendations
1 INTRODUCTION
The Uncertain Atmosphere and Hydrosphere
The Evolution of Hydrometeorological Uncertainty Prediction
Communication of Uncertainty Information
Reasons for Supplying Uncertainty Information
The Need for an Enterprise-Wide Response
Education as a Cornerstone of the Transition to a Probabilistic Viewpoint
The Uncertainty Imperative
2 UNCERTAINTY IN DECISION MAKING
User Types and Needs for Uncertainty Information
Psychological Factors in Interpreting and Using Uncertain Information
Statistical Approaches to Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Guidance on Identifying and Characterizing User Needs
3 ESTIMATING AND VALIDATING UNCERTAINTY
Environmental Modeling Center: Global and Mesoscale Guidance
Climate Prediction Center
Office of Hydrologic Development
Subjectively Creating Uncertainty Information
Verification
4 COMMUNICATING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
Background
Communicating Uncertainty in Everyday and Hazardous Weather Forecast Products
Important Aspects of Communicating Uncertainty
Role of Users in the Product Development Process
Research and Development Program to Improve Communication of Forecast Uncertainty
Education and Training Needs
Annex 4: Examples of Uncertainty Communication Approaches and Products
5 OVERARCHING RECOMMENDATIONS
Context
Next Steps
REFERENCES
APPENDIXES
A Acronyms and Initialisms
B List of Presenters and Other Contributors to the Study Process
C Biographical Sketches of Committee Members and Staff
with TOC BookMarkLinks


Completing the Forecast Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts PDF eBook

1$
Buy!Download Size: 6.23 MB


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